Recent forecasts from European models including ECMWF and GFS, alongside IMGW guidance, indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on September 3 will likely fall between 13–16 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. Radiative cooling will be moderated by elevated dew points near 12–13 °C and limited clear-sky periods, while weak frontal approaches later in the period introduce minor model spread on exact minimum timing. Historical September climatology shows average minima near 10 °C, but current warmer advection keeps values elevated. With leading market outcomes clustered at 12–15 °C and probabilities within a few points of each other, traders are pricing the narrow range of uncertainty inherent in short-range ensemble guidance and local urban heat effects. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.