Incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner in a state with a strong Republican base. Independent Dan Osborn, who mounted a competitive challenge in the prior cycle, has consolidated support from Democrats after their nominee pledged to withdraw, positioning him as the main alternative. Recent polls from May 2026 show Ricketts leading Osborn by single digits in head-to-head matchups, though the race remains open to shifts in turnout and voter sentiment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the incumbent's structural advantages alongside Osborn's appeal to moderate and crossover voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 59%
Indépendant 40%
Démocrate 2.6%
$132,891 Vol.
$132,891 Vol.

Républicain
59%

Indépendant
40%

Démocrate
3%
Républicain 59%
Indépendant 40%
Démocrate 2.6%
$132,891 Vol.
$132,891 Vol.

Républicain
59%

Indépendant
40%

Démocrate
3%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner in a state with a strong Republican base. Independent Dan Osborn, who mounted a competitive challenge in the prior cycle, has consolidated support from Democrats after their nominee pledged to withdraw, positioning him as the main alternative. Recent polls from May 2026 show Ricketts leading Osborn by single digits in head-to-head matchups, though the race remains open to shifts in turnout and voter sentiment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the incumbent's structural advantages alongside Osborn's appeal to moderate and crossover voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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