Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election with a structural advantage in the solidly Republican state. Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a former union leader who performed strongly in the 2024 Senate race, has consolidated support from Democrats, who largely cleared their own nominee to avoid splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Recent polling shows Ricketts leading Osborn by single digits, while Osborn's June 11 signature submission confirmed his ballot access and sustained his viability. These dynamics have produced trader consensus around a Republican edge alongside a substantial Independent probability, with the Democratic outcome remaining marginal absent major shifts in the final months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 59%
Indépendant 39%
Démocrate 2.6%
$134,959 Vol.
$134,959 Vol.

Républicain
59%

Indépendant
39%

Démocrate
3%
Républicain 59%
Indépendant 39%
Démocrate 2.6%
$134,959 Vol.
$134,959 Vol.

Républicain
59%

Indépendant
39%

Démocrate
3%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election with a structural advantage in the solidly Republican state. Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a former union leader who performed strongly in the 2024 Senate race, has consolidated support from Democrats, who largely cleared their own nominee to avoid splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Recent polling shows Ricketts leading Osborn by single digits, while Osborn's June 11 signature submission confirmed his ballot access and sustained his viability. These dynamics have produced trader consensus around a Republican edge alongside a substantial Independent probability, with the Democratic outcome remaining marginal absent major shifts in the final months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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