California’s 16th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voter index and voter registration that heavily favors Democrats. Incumbent Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 70 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican contenders. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory in November, aligning with these structural advantages. Late developments such as an unexpected national shift or unforeseen candidate issue could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
$76,668 Vol.
$76,668 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
93%
Parti républicain
7%
$76,668 Vol.
$76,668 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$49,124 Vol.
93%
Parti républicain
$27,544 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 16th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voter index and voter registration that heavily favors Democrats. Incumbent Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 70 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican contenders. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory in November, aligning with these structural advantages. Late developments such as an unexpected national shift or unforeseen candidate issue could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$76,668Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 16th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voter index and voter registration that heavily favors Democrats. Incumbent Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 70 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican contenders. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory in November, aligning with these structural advantages. Late developments such as an unexpected national shift or unforeseen candidate issue could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$76,668Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 16th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voter index and voter registration that heavily favors Democrats. Incumbent Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 70 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican contenders. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory in November, aligning with these structural advantages. Late developments such as an unexpected national shift or unforeseen candidate issue could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes