Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, capturing 55.8 percent of the vote amid redistricting that strengthened the seat’s conservative lean. The district, covering northern Houston suburbs including The Woodlands and Kingwood, carries solid Republican ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, reflecting consistent voter patterns in presidential and statewide contests. Toth’s state legislative record on border security and education policy, along with endorsements from figures like Ted Cruz, reinforced party support. Shaun Finnie, the Democratic nominee who ran unopposed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican margins have historically exceeded 20 points. Late developments such as national economic shifts or candidate-specific controversies remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November general election.