US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without a permanent peace agreement, as Tehran rejected Washington's demands for nuclear curbs, a five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. A fragile two-week ceasefire from early April holds tenuously, with President Trump signaling possible second-round talks via Pakistani mediators—led by Army Chief Asim Munir—in the coming days before it expires around April 22. Deep divides persist over Iran's uranium enrichment, regional proxies like Hezbollah, and sanctions relief, reflecting trader consensus on slim prospects for a comprehensive deal absent major concessions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
Accord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
$8,506,491 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
22 avril
17%
30 avril
38%
31 mai
62%
30 juin
70%
$8,506,491 Vol.
22 avril
$5,648,504 Vol.
17%
30 avril
$1,566,084 Vol.
38%
31 mai
$1,037,411 Vol.
62%
30 juin
$275,436 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without a permanent peace agreement, as Tehran rejected Washington's demands for nuclear curbs, a five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. A fragile two-week ceasefire from early April holds tenuously, with President Trump signaling possible second-round talks via Pakistani mediators—led by Army Chief Asim Munir—in the coming days before it expires around April 22. Deep divides persist over Iran's uranium enrichment, regional proxies like Hezbollah, and sanctions relief, reflecting trader consensus on slim prospects for a comprehensive deal absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$8,506,491Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without a permanent peace agreement, as Tehran rejected Washington's demands for nuclear curbs, a five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. A fragile two-week ceasefire from early April holds tenuously, with President Trump signaling possible second-round talks via Pakistani mediators—led by Army Chief Asim Munir—in the coming days before it expires around April 22. Deep divides persist over Iran's uranium enrichment, regional proxies like Hezbollah, and sanctions relief, reflecting trader consensus on slim prospects for a comprehensive deal absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,506,491Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without a permanent peace agreement, as Tehran rejected Washington's demands for nuclear curbs, a five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. A fragile two-week ceasefire from early April holds tenuously, with President Trump signaling possible second-round talks via Pakistani mediators—led by Army Chief Asim Munir—in the coming days before it expires around April 22. Deep divides persist over Iran's uranium enrichment, regional proxies like Hezbollah, and sanctions relief, reflecting trader consensus on slim prospects for a comprehensive deal absent major concessions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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