US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours, deadlocked over Washington's demands for permanent nuclear suspension, missile caps, and curbs on proxy militias versus Tehran's insistence on full ceasefire guarantees and no future strikes. A tenuous two-week truce, mediated by Pakistan, persists amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to enforce reopening and pressure Tehran. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, while Defense Secretary Hegseth briefed on sustained operations. Trader consensus reflects slim odds for a permanent deal by year-end, given entrenched barriers like Iran's uranium enrichment and regional influence, with oil flows and escalation risks pivotal ahead of any resumption.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
Accord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
$8,434,412 Vol.
31 mai 2026
22 avril
16%
30 avril
37%
31 mai
62%
30 juin
71%
$8,434,412 Vol.
22 avril
$5,586,488 Vol.
16%
30 avril
$1,557,222 Vol.
37%
31 mai
$1,023,741 Vol.
62%
30 juin
$273,750 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours, deadlocked over Washington's demands for permanent nuclear suspension, missile caps, and curbs on proxy militias versus Tehran's insistence on full ceasefire guarantees and no future strikes. A tenuous two-week truce, mediated by Pakistan, persists amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to enforce reopening and pressure Tehran. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, while Defense Secretary Hegseth briefed on sustained operations. Trader consensus reflects slim odds for a permanent deal by year-end, given entrenched barriers like Iran's uranium enrichment and regional influence, with oil flows and escalation risks pivotal ahead of any resumption.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$8,434,412Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours, deadlocked over Washington's demands for permanent nuclear suspension, missile caps, and curbs on proxy militias versus Tehran's insistence on full ceasefire guarantees and no future strikes. A tenuous two-week truce, mediated by Pakistan, persists amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to enforce reopening and pressure Tehran. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, while Defense Secretary Hegseth briefed on sustained operations. Trader consensus reflects slim odds for a permanent deal by year-end, given entrenched barriers like Iran's uranium enrichment and regional influence, with oil flows and escalation risks pivotal ahead of any resumption.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,434,412Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours, deadlocked over Washington's demands for permanent nuclear suspension, missile caps, and curbs on proxy militias versus Tehran's insistence on full ceasefire guarantees and no future strikes. A tenuous two-week truce, mediated by Pakistan, persists amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to enforce reopening and pressure Tehran. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, while Defense Secretary Hegseth briefed on sustained operations. Trader consensus reflects slim odds for a permanent deal by year-end, given entrenched barriers like Iran's uranium enrichment and regional influence, with oil flows and escalation risks pivotal ahead of any resumption.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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