Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan on April 8 amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The Trump administration's demands—zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear sites, five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and Hormuz reopening—clashed with Tehran's insistence on full cessation of strikes and guarantees against future attacks, leaving trader sentiment skeptical of a permanent peace deal. Vice President JD Vance called it America's "best final offer," while President Trump signaled possible resumption within days; the ceasefire expires around April 22, with escalation risks if no progress.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
Accord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
$8,165,333 Vol.
31 mai 2026
22 avril
16%
30 avril
39%
31 mai
60%
30 juin
68%
$8,165,333 Vol.
22 avril
$5,413,498 Vol.
16%
30 avril
$1,513,327 Vol.
39%
31 mai
$998,218 Vol.
60%
30 juin
$242,001 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan on April 8 amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The Trump administration's demands—zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear sites, five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and Hormuz reopening—clashed with Tehran's insistence on full cessation of strikes and guarantees against future attacks, leaving trader sentiment skeptical of a permanent peace deal. Vice President JD Vance called it America's "best final offer," while President Trump signaled possible resumption within days; the ceasefire expires around April 22, with escalation risks if no progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$8,165,333Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan on April 8 amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The Trump administration's demands—zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear sites, five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and Hormuz reopening—clashed with Tehran's insistence on full cessation of strikes and guarantees against future attacks, leaving trader sentiment skeptical of a permanent peace deal. Vice President JD Vance called it America's "best final offer," while President Trump signaled possible resumption within days; the ceasefire expires around April 22, with escalation risks if no progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,165,333Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 12 without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan on April 8 amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The Trump administration's demands—zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear sites, five-year missile freeze, proxy funding halt, and Hormuz reopening—clashed with Tehran's insistence on full cessation of strikes and guarantees against future attacks, leaving trader sentiment skeptical of a permanent peace deal. Vice President JD Vance called it America's "best final offer," while President Trump signaled possible resumption within days; the ceasefire expires around April 22, with escalation risks if no progress.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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