The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 race against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling and midterm dynamics in this highly competitive southeastern Arizona district. The seat features narrow prior margins, including Ciscomani’s 2024 reelection and Donald Trump’s sub-1-point 2024 performance there. Post-July 21 primaries, where both candidates advanced without serious opposition, a March 2026 survey showed Mendoza ahead 47%-44%, and forecasters rate the contest as a tossup or lean Democratic flip. Broader 2026 House environment—Republicans defending a slim majority entering midterms—has amplified focus on battleground districts like this one, where challenger fundraising and national trends influence positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
18%
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,889 वॉल्यूम
83%
Republican Party
$5,982 वॉल्यूम
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 race against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling and midterm dynamics in this highly competitive southeastern Arizona district. The seat features narrow prior margins, including Ciscomani’s 2024 reelection and Donald Trump’s sub-1-point 2024 performance there. Post-July 21 primaries, where both candidates advanced without serious opposition, a March 2026 survey showed Mendoza ahead 47%-44%, and forecasters rate the contest as a tossup or lean Democratic flip. Broader 2026 House environment—Republicans defending a slim majority entering midterms—has amplified focus on battleground districts like this one, where challenger fundraising and national trends influence positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,871समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 race against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling and midterm dynamics in this highly competitive southeastern Arizona district. The seat features narrow prior margins, including Ciscomani’s 2024 reelection and Donald Trump’s sub-1-point 2024 performance there. Post-July 21 primaries, where both candidates advanced without serious opposition, a March 2026 survey showed Mendoza ahead 47%-44%, and forecasters rate the contest as a tossup or lean Democratic flip. Broader 2026 House environment—Republicans defending a slim majority entering midterms—has amplified focus on battleground districts like this one, where challenger fundraising and national trends influence positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$9,871समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 race against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling and midterm dynamics in this highly competitive southeastern Arizona district. The seat features narrow prior margins, including Ciscomani’s 2024 reelection and Donald Trump’s sub-1-point 2024 performance there. Post-July 21 primaries, where both candidates advanced without serious opposition, a March 2026 survey showed Mendoza ahead 47%-44%, and forecasters rate the contest as a tossup or lean Democratic flip. Broader 2026 House environment—Republicans defending a slim majority entering midterms—has amplified focus on battleground districts like this one, where challenger fundraising and national trends influence positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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