Trader consensus prices a 90.5% probability against Iran achieving a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israeli airstrikes in March 2026 that targeted key nuclear sites like Isfahan, severely degrading enrichment capacities originally damaged in prior 2025 operations. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases post-strikes and highlight Iran's underground storage of 440kg of 60% enriched uranium without active rebuilding, corroborated by US intelligence assessments. Recent US-Iran talks in Pakistan on April 12 collapsed without a deal—US demands include facility dismantlement and uranium handover—but second-round discussions loom amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. These military setbacks and diplomatic pressures create substantial barriers, though covert reconstitution or escalation could shift odds.