In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a Mejia victory margin of 20-30%, closely split between those buckets, driven by a March internal poll showing Democrat Analilia Mejia ahead 53-36% over Republican Joe Hathaway amid her two-to-one fundraising edge and endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council 73. The district's Democratic lean—Harris +9, Sherrill +15 in 2024 House results—supports a solid win, but Mejia's progressive primary upset raises modest concerns of moderate voter hesitation in this low-turnout special on April 16, keeping odds from pricing a blowout. Strong early voting and Democratic mobilization could widen the margin, while GOP turnout surges might compress it toward 20%. The winner faces June primaries and November general.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
Other <1%
Mejia 30-35% 0
$2,471 वॉल्यूम
$2,471 वॉल्यूम
16 अप्रैल, 2026
Mejia 40%+
8%
Mejia 35-40%
24%
Mejia 30-35%
34%
Mejia 25-30%
34%
Mejia 20-25%
50%
Mejia <20%
35%
Other
<1%
Mejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
Other <1%
Mejia 30-35% 0
$2,471 वॉल्यूम
$2,471 वॉल्यूम
16 अप्रैल, 2026
Mejia 40%+
$140 वॉल्यूम
8%
Mejia 35-40%
$319 वॉल्यूम
24%
Mejia 30-35%
$628 वॉल्यूम
34%
Mejia 25-30%
$379 वॉल्यूम
34%
Mejia 20-25%
$199 वॉल्यूम
50%
Mejia <20%
$472 वॉल्यूम
35%
Other
$335 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a Mejia victory margin of 20-30%, closely split between those buckets, driven by a March internal poll showing Democrat Analilia Mejia ahead 53-36% over Republican Joe Hathaway amid her two-to-one fundraising edge and endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council 73. The district's Democratic lean—Harris +9, Sherrill +15 in 2024 House results—supports a solid win, but Mejia's progressive primary upset raises modest concerns of moderate voter hesitation in this low-turnout special on April 16, keeping odds from pricing a blowout. Strong early voting and Democratic mobilization could widen the margin, while GOP turnout surges might compress it toward 20%. The winner faces June primaries and November general.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,471समाप्ति तिथि
16 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a Mejia victory margin of 20-30%, closely split between those buckets, driven by a March internal poll showing Democrat Analilia Mejia ahead 53-36% over Republican Joe Hathaway amid her two-to-one fundraising edge and endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council 73. The district's Democratic lean—Harris +9, Sherrill +15 in 2024 House results—supports a solid win, but Mejia's progressive primary upset raises modest concerns of moderate voter hesitation in this low-turnout special on April 16, keeping odds from pricing a blowout. Strong early voting and Democratic mobilization could widen the margin, while GOP turnout surges might compress it toward 20%. The winner faces June primaries and November general.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
वॉल्यूम
$2,471समाप्ति तिथि
16 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a Mejia victory margin of 20-30%, closely split between those buckets, driven by a March internal poll showing Democrat Analilia Mejia ahead 53-36% over Republican Joe Hathaway amid her two-to-one fundraising edge and endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council 73. The district's Democratic lean—Harris +9, Sherrill +15 in 2024 House results—supports a solid win, but Mejia's progressive primary upset raises modest concerns of moderate voter hesitation in this low-turnout special on April 16, keeping odds from pricing a blowout. Strong early voting and Democratic mobilization could widen the margin, while GOP turnout surges might compress it toward 20%. The winner faces June primaries and November general.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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