Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation from Congress, amid a House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged sexual misconduct including an admitted affair with a staffer who died by suicide and explicit text messages to another employee reported on April 6, has intensified scrutiny but revealed no active DOJ or FBI criminal probe. Traders imply a 55% probability of formal charges by June 30, balancing escalating allegations of workplace harassment against the rarity of criminal indictments stemming from congressional ethics matters, with potential for referrals if evidence uncovers coercive elements or misuse of office. Upcoming ethics panel findings could influence DOJ consideration, though outcomes remain uncertain.