Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, with 28–31 close behind at 23.5%, as trackers like Ballotpedia report 20 such announcements as of April 15—13 pure retirements including veterans like Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, plus seven pursuing Senate bids. The tight clustering reflects steady pacing without recent surges, but historical midterm patterns show late announcements from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts amid unfavorable polling or redistricting challenges. No major Democratic retirements in the past month, yet spring filing deadlines across states could trigger a wave, keeping lower bins like 20–23 viable while higher ones hinge on broader party pressures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया24–27 30%
28–31 24%
20–23 18.7%
32–35 11.7%
$27,638 वॉल्यूम
$27,638 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
19%
24–27
30%
28–31
24%
32–35
12%
36–39
6%
40+
7%
24–27 30%
28–31 24%
20–23 18.7%
32–35 11.7%
$27,638 वॉल्यूम
$27,638 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<20
$15,389 वॉल्यूम
3%
20–23
$4,601 वॉल्यूम
19%
24–27
$3,407 वॉल्यूम
30%
28–31
$1,099 वॉल्यूम
24%
32–35
$3,142 वॉल्यूम
12%
36–39
$0 वॉल्यूम
6%
40+
$0 वॉल्यूम
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, with 28–31 close behind at 23.5%, as trackers like Ballotpedia report 20 such announcements as of April 15—13 pure retirements including veterans like Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, plus seven pursuing Senate bids. The tight clustering reflects steady pacing without recent surges, but historical midterm patterns show late announcements from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts amid unfavorable polling or redistricting challenges. No major Democratic retirements in the past month, yet spring filing deadlines across states could trigger a wave, keeping lower bins like 20–23 viable while higher ones hinge on broader party pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,638समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, with 28–31 close behind at 23.5%, as trackers like Ballotpedia report 20 such announcements as of April 15—13 pure retirements including veterans like Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, plus seven pursuing Senate bids. The tight clustering reflects steady pacing without recent surges, but historical midterm patterns show late announcements from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts amid unfavorable polling or redistricting challenges. No major Democratic retirements in the past month, yet spring filing deadlines across states could trigger a wave, keeping lower bins like 20–23 viable while higher ones hinge on broader party pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$27,638समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, with 28–31 close behind at 23.5%, as trackers like Ballotpedia report 20 such announcements as of April 15—13 pure retirements including veterans like Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, plus seven pursuing Senate bids. The tight clustering reflects steady pacing without recent surges, but historical midterm patterns show late announcements from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts amid unfavorable polling or redistricting challenges. No major Democratic retirements in the past month, yet spring filing deadlines across states could trigger a wave, keeping lower bins like 20–23 viable while higher ones hinge on broader party pressures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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