Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas, representing Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District since a 1994 special election, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean (historical PVI R+24) and his unopposed 2024 victory. The April 3 filing deadline confirmed primary challengers Wade Burleson and Michael DiMario, but Lucas's seniority on House Agriculture Committee and consistent landslide margins underpin expectations of an easy June 16 Republican primary win. Democrat Rebekah LaVann has filed for the general, yet lacks competitive polling or fundraising to threaten. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, though base rates for such safe seats favor incumbents.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOK -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
OK -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$75,657 वॉल्यूम
$75,657 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
5%
$75,657 वॉल्यूम
$75,657 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$42,085 वॉल्यूम
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$33,572 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas, representing Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District since a 1994 special election, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean (historical PVI R+24) and his unopposed 2024 victory. The April 3 filing deadline confirmed primary challengers Wade Burleson and Michael DiMario, but Lucas's seniority on House Agriculture Committee and consistent landslide margins underpin expectations of an easy June 16 Republican primary win. Democrat Rebekah LaVann has filed for the general, yet lacks competitive polling or fundraising to threaten. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, though base rates for such safe seats favor incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$75,657समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas, representing Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District since a 1994 special election, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean (historical PVI R+24) and his unopposed 2024 victory. The April 3 filing deadline confirmed primary challengers Wade Burleson and Michael DiMario, but Lucas's seniority on House Agriculture Committee and consistent landslide margins underpin expectations of an easy June 16 Republican primary win. Democrat Rebekah LaVann has filed for the general, yet lacks competitive polling or fundraising to threaten. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, though base rates for such safe seats favor incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$75,657समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas, representing Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District since a 1994 special election, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean (historical PVI R+24) and his unopposed 2024 victory. The April 3 filing deadline confirmed primary challengers Wade Burleson and Michael DiMario, but Lucas's seniority on House Agriculture Committee and consistent landslide margins underpin expectations of an easy June 16 Republican primary win. Democrat Rebekah LaVann has filed for the general, yet lacks competitive polling or fundraising to threaten. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, though base rates for such safe seats favor incumbents.
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