Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent leadership transition. Widespread demonstrations peaked in January 2026 over economic woes and repression, prompting internet blackouts and security force crackdowns that quelled unrest without mass defections from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early March from U.S.-Israeli strikes led to Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as hardliner successor, intensifying controls and stabilizing the power structure despite ongoing economic sanctions and proxy setbacks. Absent unified opposition or IRGC fractures, traders view significant barriers to collapse in the next 2.5 months, though escalation in regional conflicts or internal revolts could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 जून तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 जून तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$31,210,973 वॉल्यूम
$31,210,973 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$31,210,973 वॉल्यूम
$31,210,973 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent leadership transition. Widespread demonstrations peaked in January 2026 over economic woes and repression, prompting internet blackouts and security force crackdowns that quelled unrest without mass defections from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early March from U.S.-Israeli strikes led to Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as hardliner successor, intensifying controls and stabilizing the power structure despite ongoing economic sanctions and proxy setbacks. Absent unified opposition or IRGC fractures, traders view significant barriers to collapse in the next 2.5 months, though escalation in regional conflicts or internal revolts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,210,973समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent leadership transition. Widespread demonstrations peaked in January 2026 over economic woes and repression, prompting internet blackouts and security force crackdowns that quelled unrest without mass defections from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early March from U.S.-Israeli strikes led to Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as hardliner successor, intensifying controls and stabilizing the power structure despite ongoing economic sanctions and proxy setbacks. Absent unified opposition or IRGC fractures, traders view significant barriers to collapse in the next 2.5 months, though escalation in regional conflicts or internal revolts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$31,210,973समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent leadership transition. Widespread demonstrations peaked in January 2026 over economic woes and repression, prompting internet blackouts and security force crackdowns that quelled unrest without mass defections from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early March from U.S.-Israeli strikes led to Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as hardliner successor, intensifying controls and stabilizing the power structure despite ongoing economic sanctions and proxy setbacks. Absent unified opposition or IRGC fractures, traders view significant barriers to collapse in the next 2.5 months, though escalation in regional conflicts or internal revolts could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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