Trader consensus reflects 96.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 war with the US and Israel. Since mid-March airstrikes targeting IRGC commanders—including confirmed deaths of figures like Alireza Tangsiri and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's elimination—the regime has sustained missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and internal repression via over 1,000 arrests and executions in recent weeks. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were suppressed through massacres, preserving IRGC loyalty and elite cohesion despite succession strains around Mojtaba Khamenei. No mass defections or uprisings have materialized, aligning with historical patterns of survival under pressure. Shifts could arise from IRGC fractures, economic implosion, or proxy network breakdowns, though timelines favor continuity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
क्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$1,504,516 वॉल्यूम
$1,504,516 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$1,504,516 वॉल्यूम
$1,504,516 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 96.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 war with the US and Israel. Since mid-March airstrikes targeting IRGC commanders—including confirmed deaths of figures like Alireza Tangsiri and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's elimination—the regime has sustained missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and internal repression via over 1,000 arrests and executions in recent weeks. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were suppressed through massacres, preserving IRGC loyalty and elite cohesion despite succession strains around Mojtaba Khamenei. No mass defections or uprisings have materialized, aligning with historical patterns of survival under pressure. Shifts could arise from IRGC fractures, economic implosion, or proxy network breakdowns, though timelines favor continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,504,516समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 96.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 war with the US and Israel. Since mid-March airstrikes targeting IRGC commanders—including confirmed deaths of figures like Alireza Tangsiri and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's elimination—the regime has sustained missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and internal repression via over 1,000 arrests and executions in recent weeks. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were suppressed through massacres, preserving IRGC loyalty and elite cohesion despite succession strains around Mojtaba Khamenei. No mass defections or uprisings have materialized, aligning with historical patterns of survival under pressure. Shifts could arise from IRGC fractures, economic implosion, or proxy network breakdowns, though timelines favor continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,504,516समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 96.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 war with the US and Israel. Since mid-March airstrikes targeting IRGC commanders—including confirmed deaths of figures like Alireza Tangsiri and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's elimination—the regime has sustained missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and internal repression via over 1,000 arrests and executions in recent weeks. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were suppressed through massacres, preserving IRGC loyalty and elite cohesion despite succession strains around Mojtaba Khamenei. No mass defections or uprisings have materialized, aligning with historical patterns of survival under pressure. Shifts could arise from IRGC fractures, economic implosion, or proxy network breakdowns, though timelines favor continuity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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