Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing three months after the company's January 2026 confidential SEC submission with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. This delay, amid a tepid tech IPO window and valuation reset pressures from the 2021 $15 billion peak—now echoed in secondary shares trading around $48 per share—reflects concerns over revenue scaling beyond $725 million annualized run-rate and Nitro monetization amid competitive social platforms. The next-highest <15 billion market cap outcome at 10.2% anticipates a potential down round if listed, with recent S&P 500 all-time highs and board timing debates around SpaceX's shadow as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak IPO hingga 30 Juni 2026 81%
<15M 9.2%
15–20M 4.0%
25–30M 1.4%
$870,704 Vol.
$870,704 Vol.
<15M
9%
15–20M
4%
20–25M
1%
25–30M
1%
30M+
1%
Tidak IPO hingga 30 Juni 2026
81%
Tidak IPO hingga 30 Juni 2026 81%
<15M 9.2%
15–20M 4.0%
25–30M 1.4%
$870,704 Vol.
$870,704 Vol.
<15M
9%
15–20M
4%
20–25M
1%
25–30M
1%
30M+
1%
Tidak IPO hingga 30 Juni 2026
81%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing three months after the company's January 2026 confidential SEC submission with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. This delay, amid a tepid tech IPO window and valuation reset pressures from the 2021 $15 billion peak—now echoed in secondary shares trading around $48 per share—reflects concerns over revenue scaling beyond $725 million annualized run-rate and Nitro monetization amid competitive social platforms. The next-highest <15 billion market cap outcome at 10.2% anticipates a potential down round if listed, with recent S&P 500 all-time highs and board timing debates around SpaceX's shadow as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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