Ongoing containment efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the resolution of Uganda’s smaller outbreak in July have kept trader sentiment narrowly favoring “No,” with the market-implied odds reflecting limited evidence of sustained export beyond the current affected areas. The Bundibugyo virus strain has driven a large-scale DRC epidemic since May, with cases concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces, while Uganda declared its outbreak over after discharging its last patient; an imported case in France remains the only confirmed extension outside the core region. Persistent conflict, porous borders, and high-risk neighbors create realistic pathways for new detections before the October 1 cutoff, yet rapid response scaling and the absence of fresh cross-border clusters since mid-summer have prevented a decisive shift in consensus. Key upcoming catalysts include weekly case reports from DRC health zones, any announcements of imported cases in at-risk countries, and updates on surveillance or travel screening that could either confirm or rule out further geographic spread.