**Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on September 15, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and elevated humidity.** This places the 100–101°F bin as the market leader at 35% implied probability, followed by 98–99°F (25%) and 102–103°F (22.5%), reflecting typical short-range model spread for maximum temperature. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 91°F for mid-September, driven by an ongoing late-summer pattern of strong southerly flow, high dew points (near 70°F+), and heat indices often exceeding 105–109°F. Recent observations show daily highs near or above 100°F through September 13–14, with no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to moderate conditions before the 15th. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of official guidance—mostly clustered between 99–102°F—against minor model-to-model differences and the low historical likelihood of extremes outside that window this late in the season. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry).
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on September 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 15?
100-101°F 49%
98-99°F 23%
102-103°F 23%
96-97°F 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
91°F or below
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
22%
98-99°F
23%
100-101°F
36%
102-103°F
23%
104-105°F
10%
106-107°F
8%
108-109°F
2%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 49%
98-99°F 23%
102-103°F 23%
96-97°F 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
91°F or below
$180 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$9 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$7 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
22%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
23%
100-101°F
$166 Vol.
36%
102-103°F
$107 Vol.
23%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
10%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
8%
108-109°F
$0 Vol.
2%
110°F or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on September 15, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and elevated humidity.** This places the 100–101°F bin as the market leader at 35% implied probability, followed by 98–99°F (25%) and 102–103°F (22.5%), reflecting typical short-range model spread for maximum temperature.
These values sit well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 91°F for mid-September, driven by an ongoing late-summer pattern of strong southerly flow, high dew points (near 70°F+), and heat indices often exceeding 105–109°F. Recent observations show daily highs near or above 100°F through September 13–14, with no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to moderate conditions before the 15th.
Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of official guidance—mostly clustered between 99–102°F—against minor model-to-model differences and the low historical likelihood of extremes outside that window this late in the season. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$563Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on September 15, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and elevated humidity.** This places the 100–101°F bin as the market leader at 35% implied probability, followed by 98–99°F (25%) and 102–103°F (22.5%), reflecting typical short-range model spread for maximum temperature.
These values sit well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 91°F for mid-September, driven by an ongoing late-summer pattern of strong southerly flow, high dew points (near 70°F+), and heat indices often exceeding 105–109°F. Recent observations show daily highs near or above 100°F through September 13–14, with no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to moderate conditions before the 15th.
Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of official guidance—mostly clustered between 99–102°F—against minor model-to-model differences and the low historical likelihood of extremes outside that window this late in the season. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$563Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on September 15, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and elevated humidity.** This places the 100–101°F bin as the market leader at 35% implied probability, followed by 98–99°F (25%) and 102–103°F (22.5%), reflecting typical short-range model spread for maximum temperature. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 91°F for mid-September, driven by an ongoing late-summer pattern of strong southerly flow, high dew points (near 70°F+), and heat indices often exceeding 105–109°F. Recent observations show daily highs near or above 100°F through September 13–14, with no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to moderate conditions before the 15th. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of official guidance—mostly clustered between 99–102°F—against minor model-to-model differences and the low historical likelihood of extremes outside that window this late in the season. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry).
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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