Persistent late-summer heat and humidity in Houston, driven by strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, high dew points, and limited cloud cover, position mid-to-upper 90s as the most likely range for the August 15 high at Hobby Airport. Official National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance projects daily maxima of 93–98 °F under typical August climatology, with recent model runs showing only modest afternoon sea-breeze moderation or scattered convection that could cap readings at 94–95 °F. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward 96–97 °F (57.5 % implied probability) and 94–95 °F (27.5 %), while low single-digit odds on 98–99 °F capture tail risks from clearer skies and stronger insolation. Updated forecast discussions and observational trends will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
96-97°F 59%
94-95°F 27%
98-99°F 12%
92-93°F 5%
BARU
$10,496 Vol.
BARU
$10,496 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
27%
96-97°F
59%
98-99°F
12%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 59%
94-95°F 27%
98-99°F 12%
92-93°F 5%
BARU
$10,496 Vol.
BARU
$10,496 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$308 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$476 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$468 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$850 Vol.
5%
94-95°F
$1,192 Vol.
27%
96-97°F
$3,810 Vol.
59%
98-99°F
$1,106 Vol.
12%
100-101°F
$857 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$691 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$568 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat and humidity in Houston, driven by strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, high dew points, and limited cloud cover, position mid-to-upper 90s as the most likely range for the August 15 high at Hobby Airport. Official National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance projects daily maxima of 93–98 °F under typical August climatology, with recent model runs showing only modest afternoon sea-breeze moderation or scattered convection that could cap readings at 94–95 °F. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward 96–97 °F (57.5 % implied probability) and 94–95 °F (27.5 %), while low single-digit odds on 98–99 °F capture tail risks from clearer skies and stronger insolation. Updated forecast discussions and observational trends will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$10,496Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat and humidity in Houston, driven by strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, high dew points, and limited cloud cover, position mid-to-upper 90s as the most likely range for the August 15 high at Hobby Airport. Official National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance projects daily maxima of 93–98 °F under typical August climatology, with recent model runs showing only modest afternoon sea-breeze moderation or scattered convection that could cap readings at 94–95 °F. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward 96–97 °F (57.5 % implied probability) and 94–95 °F (27.5 %), while low single-digit odds on 98–99 °F capture tail risks from clearer skies and stronger insolation. Updated forecast discussions and observational trends will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,496Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-summer heat and humidity in Houston, driven by strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, high dew points, and limited cloud cover, position mid-to-upper 90s as the most likely range for the August 15 high at Hobby Airport. Official National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance projects daily maxima of 93–98 °F under typical August climatology, with recent model runs showing only modest afternoon sea-breeze moderation or scattered convection that could cap readings at 94–95 °F. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward 96–97 °F (57.5 % implied probability) and 94–95 °F (27.5 %), while low single-digit odds on 98–99 °F capture tail risks from clearer skies and stronger insolation. Updated forecast discussions and observational trends will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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