Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a narrow 8–10°C range for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 17, reflecting tight forecast consensus around an incoming southerly change. An upper-level trough and associated cold front are steering Antarctic maritime air northward, with MetService and ECMWF model runs showing overnight minima most likely near 9°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea and variable low-level moisture introduce the main uncertainty, as clearer conditions could allow a dip toward 8°C while increased cloud or a delayed front might hold the low at 10°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
9°C 30%
8°C 26%
10°C 26%
7°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
2%
5°C
2%
6°C
11%
7°C
19%
8°C
26%
9°C
30%
10°C
26%
11°C
19%
12°C
11%
13°C
3%
14°C or higher
4%
9°C 30%
8°C 26%
10°C 26%
7°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
5°C
$0 Vol.
2%
6°C
$0 Vol.
11%
7°C
$0 Vol.
19%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
30%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
11%
13°C
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a narrow 8–10°C range for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 17, reflecting tight forecast consensus around an incoming southerly change. An upper-level trough and associated cold front are steering Antarctic maritime air northward, with MetService and ECMWF model runs showing overnight minima most likely near 9°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea and variable low-level moisture introduce the main uncertainty, as clearer conditions could allow a dip toward 8°C while increased cloud or a delayed front might hold the low at 10°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a narrow 8–10°C range for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 17, reflecting tight forecast consensus around an incoming southerly change. An upper-level trough and associated cold front are steering Antarctic maritime air northward, with MetService and ECMWF model runs showing overnight minima most likely near 9°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea and variable low-level moisture introduce the main uncertainty, as clearer conditions could allow a dip toward 8°C while increased cloud or a delayed front might hold the low at 10°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a narrow 8–10°C range for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 17, reflecting tight forecast consensus around an incoming southerly change. An upper-level trough and associated cold front are steering Antarctic maritime air northward, with MetService and ECMWF model runs showing overnight minima most likely near 9°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea and variable low-level moisture introduce the main uncertainty, as clearer conditions could allow a dip toward 8°C while increased cloud or a delayed front might hold the low at 10°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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