Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula leading the first round at 37-42% with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33-37%, leaving a competitive field for lower placements as the October 4 vote approaches. Augusto Cury has climbed to around 6% through social media momentum, positioning him as a contender for third or fourth, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low-to-mid single digits and trade as the market's top options for fourth place. Romeu Zema and smaller candidates trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these standings, with uncertainty over final-week shifts from undecided voters, debate performances, or turnout among conservative and anti-establishment blocs that could reorder the mid-tier results.