Recent polling aggregates show a statistical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round and runoff scenarios, sustaining high voter engagement ahead of the October 4 vote. Brazil’s compulsory voting framework, combined with intense polarization and campaign mobilization by major parties, supports turnout clustering in the 78-82% range reflected in current market pricing. Institutional developments at the Supreme Court and candidate events in the final weeks could shift abstention patterns, while historical first-round participation rates near 80% provide context for trader assessments of weather, logistics, and enthusiasm in key regions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<76% 27%
80-82% 27%
82%+ 27%
76-78% 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<76%
27%
76-78%
26%
78-80%
26%
80-82%
27%
82%+
27%
<76% 27%
80-82% 27%
82%+ 27%
76-78% 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<76%
$0 Vol.
27%
76-78%
$0 Vol.
26%
78-80%
$0 Vol.
26%
80-82%
$0 Vol.
27%
82%+
$0 Vol.
27%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show a statistical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round and runoff scenarios, sustaining high voter engagement ahead of the October 4 vote. Brazil’s compulsory voting framework, combined with intense polarization and campaign mobilization by major parties, supports turnout clustering in the 78-82% range reflected in current market pricing. Institutional developments at the Supreme Court and candidate events in the final weeks could shift abstention patterns, while historical first-round participation rates near 80% provide context for trader assessments of weather, logistics, and enthusiasm in key regions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 24, 2026, 3:26 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 24, 2026, 3:26 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show a statistical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round and runoff scenarios, sustaining high voter engagement ahead of the October 4 vote. Brazil’s compulsory voting framework, combined with intense polarization and campaign mobilization by major parties, supports turnout clustering in the 78-82% range reflected in current market pricing. Institutional developments at the Supreme Court and candidate events in the final weeks could shift abstention patterns, while historical first-round participation rates near 80% provide context for trader assessments of weather, logistics, and enthusiasm in key regions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$0Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 24, 2026, 3:26 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...Recent polling aggregates show a statistical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round and runoff scenarios, sustaining high voter engagement ahead of the October 4 vote. Brazil’s compulsory voting framework, combined with intense polarization and campaign mobilization by major parties, supports turnout clustering in the 78-82% range reflected in current market pricing. Institutional developments at the Supreme Court and candidate events in the final weeks could shift abstention patterns, while historical first-round participation rates near 80% provide context for trader assessments of weather, logistics, and enthusiasm in key regions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
72%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
73%
Will Augusto Cury finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
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