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Mondo·Brasile

Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile

Market icon
Mondo·Brasile

Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile

Flávio Bolsonaro 41.3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%

Renan Santos 6.4%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$51,186,888 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 41.3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%

Renan Santos 6.4%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$51,186,888 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,087,497 Vol.

41%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,552,144 Vol.

40%

Renan Santos vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Renan Santos

$4,046,145 Vol.

6%

Fernando Haddad vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Fernando Haddad

$3,502,275 Vol.

4%

Camilo Santana vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Camilo Santana

$1,203,809 Vol.

2%

Ronaldo Caiado vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,666,017 Vol.

2%

Romeu Zema vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Romeu Zema

$642,480 Vol.

1%

Jair Bolsonaro vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Jair Bolsonaro

$2,757,076 Vol.

1%

Michelle Bolsonaro vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,956,705 Vol.

<1%

Geraldo Alckmin vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$1,011,751 Vol.

<1%

Aldo Rebelo vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Aldo Rebelo

$940,270 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$6,540,952 Vol.

<1%

Tarcisio de Freitas vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$7,375,068 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Ratinho Júnior

$6,208,862 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Leite vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026? icon

Eduardo Leite

$2,698,099 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Futura/Apex, released in early April, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow leads for both first-round and runoff scenarios ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, driving Polymarket's razor-thin trader consensus with Flávio at 41% implied probability and Lula at 39%. Flávio's surge reflects the enduring appeal of the Bolsonaro family brand among conservative voters, closing a multi-point gap since February despite Lula's incumbency advantages and policy execution on social programs. The race remains tight due to undecided voters exceeding 15% in surveys and low support for alternatives like Renan Santos or Fernando Haddad. Separation could emerge from party conventions by June, economic data releases, or judicial developments affecting candidates, with historical base rates favoring incumbents in runoffs under Brazil's two-round system.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$51,186,888
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Futura/Apex, released in early April, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow leads for both first-round and runoff scenarios ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, driving Polymarket's razor-thin trader consensus with Flávio at 41% implied probability and Lula at 39%. Flávio's surge reflects the enduring appeal of the Bolsonaro family brand among conservative voters, closing a multi-point gap since February despite Lula's incumbency advantages and policy execution on social programs. The race remains tight due to undecided voters exceeding 15% in surveys and low support for alternatives like Renan Santos or Fernando Haddad. Separation could emerge from party conventions by June, economic data releases, or judicial developments affecting candidates, with historical base rates favoring incumbents in runoffs under Brazil's two-round system.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$51,186,888
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 15 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 41%, seguito da "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 40%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" ha generato $51.2 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Sep 18, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile", esplora i 15 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 40%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.