Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's strong primary performance and the district's established Republican lean keep trader focus on sizable victory margins for the GOP nominee against Democrat Michael Masuda. California's top-two primary system advanced these two candidates to the November 3 general election, with McClintock securing over 61 percent in June amid limited Democratic consolidation. Safe Republican ratings from multiple forecasters align with the market's clustering around 40-42 percent probabilities for Republican margins in the 10-35 percent range, while Democrat win odds remain low. Limited national or local shifts since the primary have sustained this positioning, though turnout patterns in key counties or late-cycle campaign spending could still influence the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-05 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
CA-05 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Repubblicano 35%+ 45%
Repubblicano 30-35% 42%
Repubblicano 15-20% 42%
Repubblicano 20-25% 41%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 35%+
45%
Repubblicano 30-35%
42%
Repubblicano 25-30%
40%
Repubblicano 20-25%
41%
Repubblicano 15-20%
42%
Repubblicano 10-15%
40%
Repubblicano 5-10%
39%
Repubblicano 0-5%
40%
Vittoria Democratici
29%
Repubblicano 35%+ 45%
Repubblicano 30-35% 42%
Repubblicano 15-20% 42%
Repubblicano 20-25% 41%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 35%+
$0 Vol.
45%
Repubblicano 30-35%
$0 Vol.
42%
Repubblicano 25-30%
$0 Vol.
40%
Repubblicano 20-25%
$0 Vol.
41%
Repubblicano 15-20%
$0 Vol.
42%
Repubblicano 10-15%
$0 Vol.
40%
Repubblicano 5-10%
$0 Vol.
39%
Repubblicano 0-5%
$0 Vol.
40%
Vittoria Democratici
$50 Vol.
29%
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's strong primary performance and the district's established Republican lean keep trader focus on sizable victory margins for the GOP nominee against Democrat Michael Masuda. California's top-two primary system advanced these two candidates to the November 3 general election, with McClintock securing over 61 percent in June amid limited Democratic consolidation. Safe Republican ratings from multiple forecasters align with the market's clustering around 40-42 percent probabilities for Republican margins in the 10-35 percent range, while Democrat win odds remain low. Limited national or local shifts since the primary have sustained this positioning, though turnout patterns in key counties or late-cycle campaign spending could still influence the final spread.
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$50Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's strong primary performance and the district's established Republican lean keep trader focus on sizable victory margins for the GOP nominee against Democrat Michael Masuda. California's top-two primary system advanced these two candidates to the November 3 general election, with McClintock securing over 61 percent in June amid limited Democratic consolidation. Safe Republican ratings from multiple forecasters align with the market's clustering around 40-42 percent probabilities for Republican margins in the 10-35 percent range, while Democrat win odds remain low. Limited national or local shifts since the primary have sustained this positioning, though turnout patterns in key counties or late-cycle campaign spending could still influence the final spread.
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's strong primary performance and the district's established Republican lean keep trader focus on sizable victory margins for the GOP nominee against Democrat Michael Masuda. California's top-two primary system advanced these two candidates to the November 3 general election, with McClintock securing over 61 percent in June amid limited Democratic consolidation. Safe Republican ratings from multiple forecasters align with the market's clustering around 40-42 percent probabilities for Republican margins in the 10-35 percent range, while Democrat win odds remain low. Limited national or local shifts since the primary have sustained this positioning, though turnout patterns in key counties or late-cycle campaign spending could still influence the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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