Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent first elected in 1991, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Cristian Morales in California's 43rd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean—reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent partisan voting patterns—underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Waters secured a comfortable primary majority despite her age and intra-party challengers, while the Republican share remained limited. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's voter registration and turnout fundamentals, modest opposition fundraising, and absence of major recent disruptions such as scandals or health developments that have historically altered similar safe-seat dynamics. A late national political shift or candidate withdrawal could still narrow the margin before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-43
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-43
$30,591 Vol.
$30,591 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
4%
$30,591 Vol.
$30,591 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$10,933 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$19,658 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent first elected in 1991, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Cristian Morales in California's 43rd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean—reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent partisan voting patterns—underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Waters secured a comfortable primary majority despite her age and intra-party challengers, while the Republican share remained limited. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's voter registration and turnout fundamentals, modest opposition fundraising, and absence of major recent disruptions such as scandals or health developments that have historically altered similar safe-seat dynamics. A late national political shift or candidate withdrawal could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$30,591Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent first elected in 1991, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Cristian Morales in California's 43rd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean—reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent partisan voting patterns—underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Waters secured a comfortable primary majority despite her age and intra-party challengers, while the Republican share remained limited. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's voter registration and turnout fundamentals, modest opposition fundraising, and absence of major recent disruptions such as scandals or health developments that have historically altered similar safe-seat dynamics. A late national political shift or candidate withdrawal could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,591Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent first elected in 1991, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Cristian Morales in California's 43rd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean—reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent partisan voting patterns—underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Waters secured a comfortable primary majority despite her age and intra-party challengers, while the Republican share remained limited. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's voter registration and turnout fundamentals, modest opposition fundraising, and absence of major recent disruptions such as scandals or health developments that have historically altered similar safe-seat dynamics. A late national political shift or candidate withdrawal could still narrow the margin before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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