California’s 11th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement, with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats at roughly 64 percent compared to 7 percent Republican, and the district’s San Francisco core has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. No viable Republican candidate emerged from the primary, leaving the party contest uncompetitive. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 97.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with historical results and the absence of cross-party opposition. A Democratic win could still be disrupted only by an unforeseen late development such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a fundamental shift in district boundaries or turnout patterns.