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Geopolitica·Israele X Iran

Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Israele X Iran

Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?

$839,424 Vol.

30 apr 2026
Polymarket

$839,424 Vol.

Polymarket

15 aprile

$539,250 Vol.

1%

30 aprile

$300,174 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf state—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, or Bahrain—to launch drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil by April 30, reflecting a defensive stance amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8. Recent Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and US bases hosting heightened tensions, prompting GCC condemnations and air defense successes, but states have urged Washington to degrade Tehran's capabilities without direct offensive entry, prioritizing economic stability as Tadawul and ADX indices rebound from war lows. Brent crude eased below $97/barrel on de-escalation hopes, though Strait of Hormuz traffic remains suppressed at under 25% pre-war levels; watch Islamabad talks by April 22 for resolution risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$839,424
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf state—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, or Bahrain—to launch drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil by April 30, reflecting a defensive stance amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8. Recent Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and US bases hosting heightened tensions, prompting GCC condemnations and air defense successes, but states have urged Washington to degrade Tehran's capabilities without direct offensive entry, prioritizing economic stability as Tadawul and ADX indices rebound from war lows. Brent crude eased below $97/barrel on de-escalation hopes, though Strait of Hormuz traffic remains suppressed at under 25% pre-war levels; watch Islamabad talks by April 22 for resolution risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$839,424
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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Domande frequenti

"Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "30 aprile" a 6%, seguito da "15 aprile" a 1%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 6¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 6% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?" ha generato $839.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?" è "30 aprile" a solo 6%, con "15 aprile" vicino a 1%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.