Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf State—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Oman—to launch drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by April 30, driven by recent Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf targets that were successfully intercepted without provoking offensive retaliation. Heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions have fueled oil market volatility, with Brent crude fluctuating around $97 per barrel amid US naval blockades on Iranian ports and fragile ceasefires, while the VIX has eased below 20 to pre-war levels on de-escalation signals. Gulf economies, battered by disrupted exports, prioritize self-defense and US-led pressure over direct engagement, with UN-GCC talks this month as a key catalyst ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAzione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?
Azione militare dello Stato del Golfo contro l'Iran da parte di...?
$839,324 Vol.
30 apr 2026
15 aprile
1%
30 aprile
6%
$839,324 Vol.
15 aprile
$539,250 Vol.
1%
30 aprile
$300,074 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf State—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Oman—to launch drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by April 30, driven by recent Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf targets that were successfully intercepted without provoking offensive retaliation. Heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions have fueled oil market volatility, with Brent crude fluctuating around $97 per barrel amid US naval blockades on Iranian ports and fragile ceasefires, while the VIX has eased below 20 to pre-war levels on de-escalation signals. Gulf economies, battered by disrupted exports, prioritize self-defense and US-led pressure over direct engagement, with UN-GCC talks this month as a key catalyst ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$839,324Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf State—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Oman—to launch drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by April 30, driven by recent Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf targets that were successfully intercepted without provoking offensive retaliation. Heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions have fueled oil market volatility, with Brent crude fluctuating around $97 per barrel amid US naval blockades on Iranian ports and fragile ceasefires, while the VIX has eased below 20 to pre-war levels on de-escalation signals. Gulf economies, battered by disrupted exports, prioritize self-defense and US-led pressure over direct engagement, with UN-GCC talks this month as a key catalyst ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$839,324Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a mere 9% implied probability for any Gulf State—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Oman—to launch drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by April 30, driven by recent Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf targets that were successfully intercepted without provoking offensive retaliation. Heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions have fueled oil market volatility, with Brent crude fluctuating around $97 per barrel amid US naval blockades on Iranian ports and fragile ceasefires, while the VIX has eased below 20 to pre-war levels on de-escalation signals. Gulf economies, battered by disrupted exports, prioritize self-defense and US-led pressure over direct engagement, with UN-GCC talks this month as a key catalyst ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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