Trader consensus favors CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability for most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, narrowly ahead of INC-led UDF at 46.5%, reflecting a fiercely contested bipolar race post-April 9 polling with record 77.5% turnout sparking debates on voter enthusiasm favoring incumbents or opposition. Pre-poll surveys like CNN-News18 projected razor-thin margins (LDF 64-70 seats, UDF 67-73), balancing LDF's welfare schemes and minority consolidation against UDF's anti-incumbency push on governance lapses, debt crisis, and scandals. Pivotal swing seats in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and central districts, plus Christian and Gulf migrant voter shifts, keep dynamics fluid; results counting in early May will resolve to the largest party by seats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
CPI(M) 53%
INC 47%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,290 Vol.
$280,290 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
53%
INC
47%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 53%
INC 47%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,290 Vol.
$280,290 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
$35,280 Vol.
53%
INC
$34,778 Vol.
47%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability for most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, narrowly ahead of INC-led UDF at 46.5%, reflecting a fiercely contested bipolar race post-April 9 polling with record 77.5% turnout sparking debates on voter enthusiasm favoring incumbents or opposition. Pre-poll surveys like CNN-News18 projected razor-thin margins (LDF 64-70 seats, UDF 67-73), balancing LDF's welfare schemes and minority consolidation against UDF's anti-incumbency push on governance lapses, debt crisis, and scandals. Pivotal swing seats in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and central districts, plus Christian and Gulf migrant voter shifts, keep dynamics fluid; results counting in early May will resolve to the largest party by seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$280,290Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability for most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, narrowly ahead of INC-led UDF at 46.5%, reflecting a fiercely contested bipolar race post-April 9 polling with record 77.5% turnout sparking debates on voter enthusiasm favoring incumbents or opposition. Pre-poll surveys like CNN-News18 projected razor-thin margins (LDF 64-70 seats, UDF 67-73), balancing LDF's welfare schemes and minority consolidation against UDF's anti-incumbency push on governance lapses, debt crisis, and scandals. Pivotal swing seats in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and central districts, plus Christian and Gulf migrant voter shifts, keep dynamics fluid; results counting in early May will resolve to the largest party by seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$280,290Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability for most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, narrowly ahead of INC-led UDF at 46.5%, reflecting a fiercely contested bipolar race post-April 9 polling with record 77.5% turnout sparking debates on voter enthusiasm favoring incumbents or opposition. Pre-poll surveys like CNN-News18 projected razor-thin margins (LDF 64-70 seats, UDF 67-73), balancing LDF's welfare schemes and minority consolidation against UDF's anti-incumbency push on governance lapses, debt crisis, and scandals. Pivotal swing seats in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and central districts, plus Christian and Gulf migrant voter shifts, keep dynamics fluid; results counting in early May will resolve to the largest party by seats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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