RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary more than 18 months into the second Trump administration, with no public signals from the White House or Senate Republican leadership indicating plans for his removal before year-end. He continues to advance administration priorities, including leadership reorganizations at HHS, expanded political appointments, and efforts to revise childhood vaccine recommendations and nutrition guidelines. Democratic lawmakers have renewed calls for his ouster over confirmation hearing testimony and agency staffing changes, yet these lack procedural force absent majority support. RFK Jr. has also publicly ruled out a 2028 presidential bid, reducing one potential exit vector. Trader consensus reflected in the 73.5% “No” price aligns with the absence of imminent departure catalysts through the resolution window.