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Politica·Trump

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Market icon
Politica·Trump

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

dic 31

dic 31

57% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
57% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick departing by December 31, driven by early April reports of President Trump's frustration with his performance amid ongoing scrutiny over past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, including bipartisan calls for resignation and an upcoming congressional hearing. Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, remains active in recent trade talks and economic briefings, bolstering "No" sentiment through demonstrated continuity in the Trump administration. Odds could tip toward "Yes" on escalated scandals, inspector general probes, or direct White House signals of cabinet changes; a public endorsement from Trump or policy wins like tariff implementations might solidify his position.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,764
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick departing by December 31, driven by early April reports of President Trump's frustration with his performance amid ongoing scrutiny over past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, including bipartisan calls for resignation and an upcoming congressional hearing. Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, remains active in recent trade talks and economic briefings, bolstering "No" sentiment through demonstrated continuity in the Trump administration. Odds could tip toward "Yes" on escalated scandals, inspector general probes, or direct White House signals of cabinet changes; a public endorsement from Trump or policy wins like tariff implementations might solidify his position.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,764
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 54% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 54¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 54% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Mar 31, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" è 54% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 54% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.