**Republican nominee Alex Mealer holds an 85.5% implied probability in the TX-09 House race primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the Houston-area district from a long-time Democratic stronghold to Republican-leaning territory rated R+9 to R+11 on partisan voting indexes.** The new lines moved the seat eastward, incorporating conservative exurbs in Liberty County while shedding heavily Democratic areas, prompting longtime incumbent Al Green to run instead in the reconfigured TX-18. Major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Mealer, a Trump-endorsed combat veteran, defeated state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 2026 Republican runoff after topping the March primary; Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won her party’s primary outright. With primaries resolved and the map locked in, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant subsequent developments have altered that positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTX-09 House Election Winner
TX-09 House Election Winner
$15,150 Vol.
$15,150 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
$15,150 Vol.
$15,150 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$11,203 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$3,946 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Alex Mealer holds an 85.5% implied probability in the TX-09 House race primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the Houston-area district from a long-time Democratic stronghold to Republican-leaning territory rated R+9 to R+11 on partisan voting indexes.** The new lines moved the seat eastward, incorporating conservative exurbs in Liberty County while shedding heavily Democratic areas, prompting longtime incumbent Al Green to run instead in the reconfigured TX-18.
Major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Mealer, a Trump-endorsed combat veteran, defeated state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 2026 Republican runoff after topping the March primary; Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won her party’s primary outright. With primaries resolved and the map locked in, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant subsequent developments have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$15,150Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Alex Mealer holds an 85.5% implied probability in the TX-09 House race primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the Houston-area district from a long-time Democratic stronghold to Republican-leaning territory rated R+9 to R+11 on partisan voting indexes.** The new lines moved the seat eastward, incorporating conservative exurbs in Liberty County while shedding heavily Democratic areas, prompting longtime incumbent Al Green to run instead in the reconfigured TX-18.
Major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Mealer, a Trump-endorsed combat veteran, defeated state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 2026 Republican runoff after topping the March primary; Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won her party’s primary outright. With primaries resolved and the map locked in, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant subsequent developments have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,150Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Alex Mealer holds an 85.5% implied probability in the TX-09 House race primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the Houston-area district from a long-time Democratic stronghold to Republican-leaning territory rated R+9 to R+11 on partisan voting indexes.** The new lines moved the seat eastward, incorporating conservative exurbs in Liberty County while shedding heavily Democratic areas, prompting longtime incumbent Al Green to run instead in the reconfigured TX-18. Major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Mealer, a Trump-endorsed combat veteran, defeated state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 2026 Republican runoff after topping the March primary; Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won her party’s primary outright. With primaries resolved and the map locked in, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant subsequent developments have altered that positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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