Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of key positions in Gao including the airport amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Coordinated rebel offensives beginning in April 2026 delivered territorial gains such as Kidal under FLA control and contested influence in parts of Gao and central regions, followed by July ambushes that inflicted losses on army convoys. Subsequent Malian airstrikes and counteroperations in the Gao region, including strikes near Tessalit and Anéfis, have disrupted insurgent momentum without evidence of decisive rebel advances on the city itself. Trader consensus reflected in the 84% probability for no full capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of sustained but incomplete rebel pressure against entrenched government defenses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoI ribelli cattureranno Gao entro il 31 dicembre?
I ribelli cattureranno Gao entro il 31 dicembre?
Sì
16% probabilità
$12,996 Vol.
$12,996 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
16% probabilità
$12,996 Vol.
$12,996 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of key positions in Gao including the airport amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Coordinated rebel offensives beginning in April 2026 delivered territorial gains such as Kidal under FLA control and contested influence in parts of Gao and central regions, followed by July ambushes that inflicted losses on army convoys. Subsequent Malian airstrikes and counteroperations in the Gao region, including strikes near Tessalit and Anéfis, have disrupted insurgent momentum without evidence of decisive rebel advances on the city itself. Trader consensus reflected in the 84% probability for no full capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of sustained but incomplete rebel pressure against entrenched government defenses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Mercato aperto: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,996Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of key positions in Gao including the airport amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Coordinated rebel offensives beginning in April 2026 delivered territorial gains such as Kidal under FLA control and contested influence in parts of Gao and central regions, followed by July ambushes that inflicted losses on army convoys. Subsequent Malian airstrikes and counteroperations in the Gao region, including strikes near Tessalit and Anéfis, have disrupted insurgent momentum without evidence of decisive rebel advances on the city itself. Trader consensus reflected in the 84% probability for no full capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of sustained but incomplete rebel pressure against entrenched government defenses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$12,996Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of key positions in Gao including the airport amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Coordinated rebel offensives beginning in April 2026 delivered territorial gains such as Kidal under FLA control and contested influence in parts of Gao and central regions, followed by July ambushes that inflicted losses on army convoys. Subsequent Malian airstrikes and counteroperations in the Gao region, including strikes near Tessalit and Anéfis, have disrupted insurgent momentum without evidence of decisive rebel advances on the city itself. Trader consensus reflected in the 84% probability for no full capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of sustained but incomplete rebel pressure against entrenched government defenses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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