Democratic prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 66.5% trader-implied probability of impeachment before January 2029. Polymarket prices Democratic House takeover odds near 88%, which would give the minority party agenda-setting power and the simple-majority threshold needed to advance articles of impeachment. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled House, including recent filings citing immigration enforcement and related executive actions, though none have advanced. Short-term 2026 impeachment contracts trade below 10%, reflecting the current partisan arithmetic, while longer-dated contracts price the post-midterm scenario. Historical precedent shows House impeachment votes occur when one party holds unified control, independent of eventual Senate conviction requirements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTrump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Trump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Sì
67% probabilità
$97,484 Vol.
$97,484 Vol.
19 gen 2029
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
67% probabilità
$97,484 Vol.
$97,484 Vol.
19 gen 2029
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 66.5% trader-implied probability of impeachment before January 2029. Polymarket prices Democratic House takeover odds near 88%, which would give the minority party agenda-setting power and the simple-majority threshold needed to advance articles of impeachment. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled House, including recent filings citing immigration enforcement and related executive actions, though none have advanced. Short-term 2026 impeachment contracts trade below 10%, reflecting the current partisan arithmetic, while longer-dated contracts price the post-midterm scenario. Historical precedent shows House impeachment votes occur when one party holds unified control, independent of eventual Senate conviction requirements.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$97,484Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 66.5% trader-implied probability of impeachment before January 2029. Polymarket prices Democratic House takeover odds near 88%, which would give the minority party agenda-setting power and the simple-majority threshold needed to advance articles of impeachment. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled House, including recent filings citing immigration enforcement and related executive actions, though none have advanced. Short-term 2026 impeachment contracts trade below 10%, reflecting the current partisan arithmetic, while longer-dated contracts price the post-midterm scenario. Historical precedent shows House impeachment votes occur when one party holds unified control, independent of eventual Senate conviction requirements.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$97,484Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Democratic prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 66.5% trader-implied probability of impeachment before January 2029. Polymarket prices Democratic House takeover odds near 88%, which would give the minority party agenda-setting power and the simple-majority threshold needed to advance articles of impeachment. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled House, including recent filings citing immigration enforcement and related executive actions, though none have advanced. Short-term 2026 impeachment contracts trade below 10%, reflecting the current partisan arithmetic, while longer-dated contracts price the post-midterm scenario. Historical precedent shows House impeachment votes occur when one party holds unified control, independent of eventual Senate conviction requirements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti