Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in California's 51st district general election on November 3, with the top-two primary already confirming their matchup after Jacobs captured roughly 58 percent to Cabrera's 37 percent. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past general-election margins near 20 points, supports trader pricing that treats a Democratic win as the baseline while spreading probability across margin buckets from under 10 points to over 40. Limited recent campaign activity, absence of major national headwinds or endorsements shifting the race, and typical late-cycle dynamics in safe seats keep exact victory margins uncertain, preventing any single range from dominating implied probabilities. Upcoming debates, fundraising reports, or turnout patterns in San Diego County could still adjust those spreads before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 35～40% 41%
民主党 20～25％ 41%
民主党 15〜20% 41%
民主党 25-30% 40%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 40%以上
39%
民主党 35～40%
41%
民主党 30〜35％
39%
民主党 25-30%
40%
民主党 20～25％
41%
民主党 15〜20%
41%
民主党 10〜15％
40%
民主党 0-10%
40%
共和党の勝利
40%
民主党 35～40% 41%
民主党 20～25％ 41%
民主党 15〜20% 41%
民主党 25-30% 40%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 40%以上
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 35～40%
$0 Vol.
41%
民主党 30〜35％
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 25-30%
$0 Vol.
40%
民主党 20～25％
$0 Vol.
41%
民主党 15〜20%
$0 Vol.
41%
民主党 10〜15％
$0 Vol.
40%
民主党 0-10%
$0 Vol.
40%
共和党の勝利
$0 Vol.
40%
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in California's 51st district general election on November 3, with the top-two primary already confirming their matchup after Jacobs captured roughly 58 percent to Cabrera's 37 percent. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past general-election margins near 20 points, supports trader pricing that treats a Democratic win as the baseline while spreading probability across margin buckets from under 10 points to over 40. Limited recent campaign activity, absence of major national headwinds or endorsements shifting the race, and typical late-cycle dynamics in safe seats keep exact victory margins uncertain, preventing any single range from dominating implied probabilities. Upcoming debates, fundraising reports, or turnout patterns in San Diego County could still adjust those spreads before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in California's 51st district general election on November 3, with the top-two primary already confirming their matchup after Jacobs captured roughly 58 percent to Cabrera's 37 percent. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past general-election margins near 20 points, supports trader pricing that treats a Democratic win as the baseline while spreading probability across margin buckets from under 10 points to over 40. Limited recent campaign activity, absence of major national headwinds or endorsements shifting the race, and typical late-cycle dynamics in safe seats keep exact victory margins uncertain, preventing any single range from dominating implied probabilities. Upcoming debates, fundraising reports, or turnout patterns in San Diego County could still adjust those spreads before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in California's 51st district general election on November 3, with the top-two primary already confirming their matchup after Jacobs captured roughly 58 percent to Cabrera's 37 percent. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past general-election margins near 20 points, supports trader pricing that treats a Democratic win as the baseline while spreading probability across margin buckets from under 10 points to over 40. Limited recent campaign activity, absence of major national headwinds or endorsements shifting the race, and typical late-cycle dynamics in safe seats keep exact victory margins uncertain, preventing any single range from dominating implied probabilities. Upcoming debates, fundraising reports, or turnout patterns in San Diego County could still adjust those spreads before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問