Hawaii's 2nd congressional district features a longstanding Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination with over 91 percent of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of any competitive Republican infrastructure further anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. All major race-rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a significant personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent, would realistically alter the current implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
6%
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$43,095 Vol.
96%
共和党
$20,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district features a longstanding Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination with over 91 percent of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of any competitive Republican infrastructure further anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. All major race-rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a significant personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent, would realistically alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$63,525終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district features a longstanding Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination with over 91 percent of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of any competitive Republican infrastructure further anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. All major race-rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a significant personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent, would realistically alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$63,525終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 2nd congressional district features a longstanding Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination with over 91 percent of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of any competitive Republican infrastructure further anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. All major race-rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a significant personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent, would realistically alter the current implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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