Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results, with the party securing the seat in every cycle since 1990. Incumbent Ed Case won the August 8 Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, clearing the path for the general election on November 3. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats routinely exceed 70% in general elections. The current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability aligns with historical margins, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national wave large enough to overcome the district's entrenched partisan patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,677 Vol.
95%
共和党
$13,658 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results, with the party securing the seat in every cycle since 1990. Incumbent Ed Case won the August 8 Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, clearing the path for the general election on November 3. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats routinely exceed 70% in general elections. The current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability aligns with historical margins, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national wave large enough to overcome the district's entrenched partisan patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$28,336終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results, with the party securing the seat in every cycle since 1990. Incumbent Ed Case won the August 8 Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, clearing the path for the general election on November 3. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats routinely exceed 70% in general elections. The current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability aligns with historical margins, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national wave large enough to overcome the district's entrenched partisan patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,336終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results, with the party securing the seat in every cycle since 1990. Incumbent Ed Case won the August 8 Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, clearing the path for the general election on November 3. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats routinely exceed 70% in general elections. The current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability aligns with historical margins, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national wave large enough to overcome the district's entrenched partisan patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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