Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and regional guidance indicate a peak of 32–33°C in Madrid on September 22 under clear skies and light southerly flow, well above the 1991–2020 daily average high of 25.1°C. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover have supported above-normal warmth across central Spain through mid-September, with recent observations showing daytime maxima 4–6°C above climatology. Market-implied odds favor 34°C as the most likely outcome, reflecting trader assessment of potential model underestimation during peak insolation and urban heat effects, while lower probabilities on 35°C+ or sub-32°C align with the narrow uncertainty range in short-range guidance ahead of the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月22日のマドリードの最高気温は？
9月22日のマドリードの最高気温は？
34℃ 60%
33℃ 33%
35℃ 19%
31℃ 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/22
28℃以下
3%
29°C
4%
30℃
4%
31℃
6%
32°C
6%
33℃
30%
34℃
60%
35℃
19%
36℃
2%
37℃
2%
38℃以上
2%
34℃ 60%
33℃ 33%
35℃ 19%
31℃ 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/22
28℃以下
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30℃
$0 Vol.
4%
31℃
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$17 Vol.
6%
33℃
$8 Vol.
30%
34℃
$80 Vol.
60%
35℃
$0 Vol.
19%
36℃
$0 Vol.
2%
37℃
$0 Vol.
2%
38℃以上
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and regional guidance indicate a peak of 32–33°C in Madrid on September 22 under clear skies and light southerly flow, well above the 1991–2020 daily average high of 25.1°C. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover have supported above-normal warmth across central Spain through mid-September, with recent observations showing daytime maxima 4–6°C above climatology. Market-implied odds favor 34°C as the most likely outcome, reflecting trader assessment of potential model underestimation during peak insolation and urban heat effects, while lower probabilities on 35°C+ or sub-32°C align with the narrow uncertainty range in short-range guidance ahead of the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
音量
$139終了日
2026/09/22マーケット開始日
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and regional guidance indicate a peak of 32–33°C in Madrid on September 22 under clear skies and light southerly flow, well above the 1991–2020 daily average high of 25.1°C. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover have supported above-normal warmth across central Spain through mid-September, with recent observations showing daytime maxima 4–6°C above climatology. Market-implied odds favor 34°C as the most likely outcome, reflecting trader assessment of potential model underestimation during peak insolation and urban heat effects, while lower probabilities on 35°C+ or sub-32°C align with the narrow uncertainty range in short-range guidance ahead of the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$139終了日
2026/09/22マーケット開始日
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and regional guidance indicate a peak of 32–33°C in Madrid on September 22 under clear skies and light southerly flow, well above the 1991–2020 daily average high of 25.1°C. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover have supported above-normal warmth across central Spain through mid-September, with recent observations showing daytime maxima 4–6°C above climatology. Market-implied odds favor 34°C as the most likely outcome, reflecting trader assessment of potential model underestimation during peak insolation and urban heat effects, while lower probabilities on 35°C+ or sub-32°C align with the narrow uncertainty range in short-range guidance ahead of the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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