Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Zhengzhou’s August 9 maximum likely peaking near 30–31 °C under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection. Subtropical high pressure supports strong insolation, yet variable humidity and scattered showers could trim the peak by 1–2 °C or allow brief clearing that pushes readings to 32 °C. These narrow differences explain the tight market clustering around 30 °C and 31 °C, as small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily high by a single degree. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will refine the most probable outcome.