Traders assign a slim 9% implied probability to Israeli military action against Iran by April 21, reflecting a fragile two-week ceasefire holding since early April amid stalled Islamabad talks and fresh diplomatic pushes. A Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran yesterday to relay U.S. overtures for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Washington considering a two-week extension before the truce expires Tuesday. Israel has prepared plans targeting Iranian energy infrastructure like petrochemical complexes and South Pars gas field—previously hit in April strikes causing major production losses—but awaits U.S. green light amid President Trump's repeated Hormuz deadlines. Hezbollah clashes and Strait blockades sustain escalation risks, yet no new airstrikes since April 9 anchor low near-term odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,662,195 Vol.
2026/04/21
4月14日
<1%
4月21日
9%
$1,662,195 Vol.
4月14日
$1,171,803 Vol.
<1%
4月21日
$490,392 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Traders assign a slim 9% implied probability to Israeli military action against Iran by April 21, reflecting a fragile two-week ceasefire holding since early April amid stalled Islamabad talks and fresh diplomatic pushes. A Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran yesterday to relay U.S. overtures for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Washington considering a two-week extension before the truce expires Tuesday. Israel has prepared plans targeting Iranian energy infrastructure like petrochemical complexes and South Pars gas field—previously hit in April strikes causing major production losses—but awaits U.S. green light amid President Trump's repeated Hormuz deadlines. Hezbollah clashes and Strait blockades sustain escalation risks, yet no new airstrikes since April 9 anchor low near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
音量
$1,662,195終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Traders assign a slim 9% implied probability to Israeli military action against Iran by April 21, reflecting a fragile two-week ceasefire holding since early April amid stalled Islamabad talks and fresh diplomatic pushes. A Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran yesterday to relay U.S. overtures for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Washington considering a two-week extension before the truce expires Tuesday. Israel has prepared plans targeting Iranian energy infrastructure like petrochemical complexes and South Pars gas field—previously hit in April strikes causing major production losses—but awaits U.S. green light amid President Trump's repeated Hormuz deadlines. Hezbollah clashes and Strait blockades sustain escalation risks, yet no new airstrikes since April 9 anchor low near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,662,195終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a slim 9% implied probability to Israeli military action against Iran by April 21, reflecting a fragile two-week ceasefire holding since early April amid stalled Islamabad talks and fresh diplomatic pushes. A Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran yesterday to relay U.S. overtures for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Washington considering a two-week extension before the truce expires Tuesday. Israel has prepared plans targeting Iranian energy infrastructure like petrochemical complexes and South Pars gas field—previously hit in April strikes causing major production losses—but awaits U.S. green light amid President Trump's repeated Hormuz deadlines. Hezbollah clashes and Strait blockades sustain escalation risks, yet no new airstrikes since April 9 anchor low near-term odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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