Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models indicate overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds will likely produce a minimum near or below 16°C in Madrid on September 14. High pressure dominating the Iberian Peninsula supports this, limiting cloud cover and moisture that would otherwise moderate temperatures. Historical climatology shows an average low of 15.7°C for the date, with recent model runs aligning closely to that baseline rather than warmer anomalies seen in prior days. Traders appear to weigh these factors against typical September variability, where small shifts in wind or humidity can alter the low by 1–2°C. Next GFS and ECMWF updates will provide key refinements before resolution.