The closely matched market-implied odds between a low of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty for Madrid’s overnight minimum on September 21. Ensemble models show divergence driven by the position and strength of an approaching Atlantic trough, which could enhance cloud cover and limit radiative cooling or allow clearer skies favoring stronger temperature drops. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects, soil moisture from recent precipitation, and wind speeds further modulate the outcome, with historical September minima averaging near 15–17°C. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Weather Services will likely shift sentiment as the 24-hour window narrows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月21日のマドリードの最低気温は？
9月21日のマドリードの最低気温は？
14℃以下 100%
24℃以上 48.5%
17℃ 40%
15℃ 38%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
14℃以下
100%
15℃
38%
16°C
38%
17℃
40%
18℃
38%
19℃
1%
20°C
5%
21℃
19%
22℃
20%
23℃
2%
24℃以上
49%
14℃以下 100%
24℃以上 48.5%
17℃ 40%
15℃ 38%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
14℃以下
$0 Vol.
100%
15℃
$0 Vol.
38%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17℃
$0 Vol.
40%
18℃
$0 Vol.
38%
19℃
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21℃
$6 Vol.
19%
22℃
$6 Vol.
20%
23℃
$6 Vol.
2%
24℃以上
$6 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds between a low of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty for Madrid’s overnight minimum on September 21. Ensemble models show divergence driven by the position and strength of an approaching Atlantic trough, which could enhance cloud cover and limit radiative cooling or allow clearer skies favoring stronger temperature drops. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects, soil moisture from recent precipitation, and wind speeds further modulate the outcome, with historical September minima averaging near 15–17°C. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Weather Services will likely shift sentiment as the 24-hour window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$24終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds between a low of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty for Madrid’s overnight minimum on September 21. Ensemble models show divergence driven by the position and strength of an approaching Atlantic trough, which could enhance cloud cover and limit radiative cooling or allow clearer skies favoring stronger temperature drops. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects, soil moisture from recent precipitation, and wind speeds further modulate the outcome, with historical September minima averaging near 15–17°C. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Weather Services will likely shift sentiment as the 24-hour window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$24終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe closely matched market-implied odds between a low of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty for Madrid’s overnight minimum on September 21. Ensemble models show divergence driven by the position and strength of an approaching Atlantic trough, which could enhance cloud cover and limit radiative cooling or allow clearer skies favoring stronger temperature drops. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects, soil moisture from recent precipitation, and wind speeds further modulate the outcome, with historical September minima averaging near 15–17°C. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Weather Services will likely shift sentiment as the 24-hour window narrows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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