Recent KMA short-range guidance and ensemble consensus project a minimum of 23–25 °C for Incheon on 23 August under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and possible showers, which suppress radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near late-summer climatology. Lingering high humidity and marine influence from the Yellow Sea further limit nocturnal drops, while the absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky conditions reduces the chance of readings below 23 °C. These factors align with the market’s heaviest weighting on 24–26 °C outcomes, reflecting both historical August minimum averages near 22–23 °C and the narrow window for meaningful deviation absent a sharp forecast shift. Updated KMA and global model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data points for traders.