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icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

21% 確率
Polymarket

$24,754 Vol.

21% 確率
Polymarket

$24,754 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**RFK Jr. remains actively engaged as HHS Secretary in September 2026, with recent public appearances at the Republican midterm convention promoting the administration’s Make America Healthy Again agenda and calling for a GOP Congress.** He continues implementing policy shifts, leadership reorganizations, and chronic disease initiatives while facing staff reductions, vaccine policy debates, and internal criticism including a letter from over 1,000 HHS employees urging his resignation. No official statements or credible reporting indicate plans for departure, and White House alignment appears steady. Traders assign a 74% implied probability to “No” based on this continuity, historical cabinet tenure patterns absent major scandals or presidential changes, and the absence of imminent triggers like confirmation issues or administration realignments before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$24,754
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**RFK Jr. remains actively engaged as HHS Secretary in September 2026, with recent public appearances at the Republican midterm convention promoting the administration’s Make America Healthy Again agenda and calling for a GOP Congress.** He continues implementing policy shifts, leadership reorganizations, and chronic disease initiatives while facing staff reductions, vaccine policy debates, and internal criticism including a letter from over 1,000 HHS employees urging his resignation. No official statements or credible reporting indicate plans for departure, and White House alignment appears steady. Traders assign a 74% implied probability to “No” based on this continuity, historical cabinet tenure patterns absent major scandals or presidential changes, and the absence of imminent triggers like confirmation issues or administration realignments before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$24,754
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「RFK Jr. Out by December 31?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して21%です。例えば、「はい」が21¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を21%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「RFK Jr. Out by December 31?」は$24.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 19, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「RFK Jr. Out by December 31?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「RFK Jr. Out by December 31?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して21%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を21%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「RFK Jr. Out by December 31?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。