Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that President Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural barriers, which require the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation. No verified developments in the past month indicate any presidential inability to discharge duties, and administration loyalty plus partisan control in Congress reduce the likelihood of invocation. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used for involuntary removal of a sitting president. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, documented health crisis or bipartisan consensus on incapacity, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.