Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
2% 確率
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
2% 確率
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$17,090終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$17,090終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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