Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$14,699終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$14,699終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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