**The US decision at the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review not to confirm a 16-year extension has anchored trader expectations.** Under Article 34.7, the United States declined to renew the agreement in its current form, triggering annual reviews through 2036 rather than an automatic extension. President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have prioritized renegotiation on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher U.S. content requirements, curbs on Chinese goods transshipping through Mexico, and reduced bilateral trade deficits. Canada and Mexico continue to seek a clean renewal, while bilateral talks with Mexico have advanced through multiple rounds without yielding trilateral consensus. Ongoing negotiations, scheduled further sessions, and statements favoring revisions over immediate extension sustain the strong market consensus against a 2026 renewal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
12% 確率
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision at the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review not to confirm a 16-year extension has anchored trader expectations.** Under Article 34.7, the United States declined to renew the agreement in its current form, triggering annual reviews through 2036 rather than an automatic extension. President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have prioritized renegotiation on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher U.S. content requirements, curbs on Chinese goods transshipping through Mexico, and reduced bilateral trade deficits. Canada and Mexico continue to seek a clean renewal, while bilateral talks with Mexico have advanced through multiple rounds without yielding trilateral consensus. Ongoing negotiations, scheduled further sessions, and statements favoring revisions over immediate extension sustain the strong market consensus against a 2026 renewal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$10,716終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision at the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review not to confirm a 16-year extension has anchored trader expectations.** Under Article 34.7, the United States declined to renew the agreement in its current form, triggering annual reviews through 2036 rather than an automatic extension. President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have prioritized renegotiation on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher U.S. content requirements, curbs on Chinese goods transshipping through Mexico, and reduced bilateral trade deficits. Canada and Mexico continue to seek a clean renewal, while bilateral talks with Mexico have advanced through multiple rounds without yielding trilateral consensus. Ongoing negotiations, scheduled further sessions, and statements favoring revisions over immediate extension sustain the strong market consensus against a 2026 renewal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$10,716終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**The US decision at the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review not to confirm a 16-year extension has anchored trader expectations.** Under Article 34.7, the United States declined to renew the agreement in its current form, triggering annual reviews through 2036 rather than an automatic extension. President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have prioritized renegotiation on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher U.S. content requirements, curbs on Chinese goods transshipping through Mexico, and reduced bilateral trade deficits. Canada and Mexico continue to seek a clean renewal, while bilateral talks with Mexico have advanced through multiple rounds without yielding trilateral consensus. Ongoing negotiations, scheduled further sessions, and statements favoring revisions over immediate extension sustain the strong market consensus against a 2026 renewal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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