Persistent large federal deficits, now projected near or above $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026 amid rising interest costs, entitlement outlays, and the net fiscal effects of major tax legislation, underpin trader expectations that the deficit will not decline before 2027. Enacted measures extending and expanding prior tax cuts have added trillions to cumulative shortfalls in Congressional Budget Office baselines, even after partial offsets from tariff revenue that face ongoing legal challenges. Debt has surpassed $40 trillion with limited offsetting savings realized to date. While administration statements reference potential consolidation steps and tariff stabilization, no enacted changes have reversed the upward trajectory. Late-cycle revenue surges from stronger growth or additional spending restraint could still narrow gaps within the window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
はい
1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Persistent large federal deficits, now projected near or above $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026 amid rising interest costs, entitlement outlays, and the net fiscal effects of major tax legislation, underpin trader expectations that the deficit will not decline before 2027. Enacted measures extending and expanding prior tax cuts have added trillions to cumulative shortfalls in Congressional Budget Office baselines, even after partial offsets from tariff revenue that face ongoing legal challenges. Debt has surpassed $40 trillion with limited offsetting savings realized to date. While administration statements reference potential consolidation steps and tariff stabilization, no enacted changes have reversed the upward trajectory. Late-cycle revenue surges from stronger growth or additional spending restraint could still narrow gaps within the window.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$2,569終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Persistent large federal deficits, now projected near or above $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026 amid rising interest costs, entitlement outlays, and the net fiscal effects of major tax legislation, underpin trader expectations that the deficit will not decline before 2027. Enacted measures extending and expanding prior tax cuts have added trillions to cumulative shortfalls in Congressional Budget Office baselines, even after partial offsets from tariff revenue that face ongoing legal challenges. Debt has surpassed $40 trillion with limited offsetting savings realized to date. While administration statements reference potential consolidation steps and tariff stabilization, no enacted changes have reversed the upward trajectory. Late-cycle revenue surges from stronger growth or additional spending restraint could still narrow gaps within the window.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
音量
$2,569終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent large federal deficits, now projected near or above $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026 amid rising interest costs, entitlement outlays, and the net fiscal effects of major tax legislation, underpin trader expectations that the deficit will not decline before 2027. Enacted measures extending and expanding prior tax cuts have added trillions to cumulative shortfalls in Congressional Budget Office baselines, even after partial offsets from tariff revenue that face ongoing legal challenges. Debt has surpassed $40 trillion with limited offsetting savings realized to date. While administration statements reference potential consolidation steps and tariff stabilization, no enacted changes have reversed the upward trajectory. Late-cycle revenue surges from stronger growth or additional spending restraint could still narrow gaps within the window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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