Recent U.S. trade policy emphasizing reciprocal agreements and supplemental tariffs on key partners has narrowed bilateral deficits, particularly with China, yet the overall goods-and-services gap remains anchored near recent annual levels around $900 billion. Macroeconomic fundamentals—primarily the gap between domestic saving and investment plus the federal budget deficit—continue to drive net capital inflows and import demand, limiting the scope for rapid shrinkage. Monthly data through April 2026 show the deficit holding in the mid-50s billions, with export gains in capital goods offset by resilient imports. Traders assign the highest probability to the 800–900 billion range because further policy tightening or fiscal consolidation would be required to push outcomes materially lower, while stronger growth or dollar appreciation could sustain or widen the figure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
5%
5000億〜6000億
3%
6000億〜7000億
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
10%
8000億～9000億
35%
9,000億〜1兆
18%
1兆〜1.1兆
5%
1.1兆ドル以上
4%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
$16,813 Vol.
5%
5000億〜6000億
$413 Vol.
3%
6000億〜7000億
$505 Vol.
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
$456 Vol.
10%
8000億～9000億
$1,008 Vol.
35%
9,000億〜1兆
$984 Vol.
18%
1兆〜1.1兆
$447 Vol.
5%
1.1兆ドル以上
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade policy emphasizing reciprocal agreements and supplemental tariffs on key partners has narrowed bilateral deficits, particularly with China, yet the overall goods-and-services gap remains anchored near recent annual levels around $900 billion. Macroeconomic fundamentals—primarily the gap between domestic saving and investment plus the federal budget deficit—continue to drive net capital inflows and import demand, limiting the scope for rapid shrinkage. Monthly data through April 2026 show the deficit holding in the mid-50s billions, with export gains in capital goods offset by resilient imports. Traders assign the highest probability to the 800–900 billion range because further policy tightening or fiscal consolidation would be required to push outcomes materially lower, while stronger growth or dollar appreciation could sustain or widen the figure.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$21,261終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade policy emphasizing reciprocal agreements and supplemental tariffs on key partners has narrowed bilateral deficits, particularly with China, yet the overall goods-and-services gap remains anchored near recent annual levels around $900 billion. Macroeconomic fundamentals—primarily the gap between domestic saving and investment plus the federal budget deficit—continue to drive net capital inflows and import demand, limiting the scope for rapid shrinkage. Monthly data through April 2026 show the deficit holding in the mid-50s billions, with export gains in capital goods offset by resilient imports. Traders assign the highest probability to the 800–900 billion range because further policy tightening or fiscal consolidation would be required to push outcomes materially lower, while stronger growth or dollar appreciation could sustain or widen the figure.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
音量
$21,261終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade policy emphasizing reciprocal agreements and supplemental tariffs on key partners has narrowed bilateral deficits, particularly with China, yet the overall goods-and-services gap remains anchored near recent annual levels around $900 billion. Macroeconomic fundamentals—primarily the gap between domestic saving and investment plus the federal budget deficit—continue to drive net capital inflows and import demand, limiting the scope for rapid shrinkage. Monthly data through April 2026 show the deficit holding in the mid-50s billions, with export gains in capital goods offset by resilient imports. Traders assign the highest probability to the 800–900 billion range because further policy tightening or fiscal consolidation would be required to push outcomes materially lower, while stronger growth or dollar appreciation could sustain or widen the figure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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