**Trader consensus on the 2026 US goods-and-services trade deficit centers on the 800–900 billion range (36.0%), followed by 900B–1T (18.5%), reflecting expectations that the annual gap will remain in the high-700B to low-trillion range.** Recent monthly data show the deficit fluctuating around 56B (April 2026 reading of 55.9B after revisions), with a trailing 12-month total near 718B through April. These figures sit below some prior-year peaks but align with forecasts that the gap will hold near 2–2.5% of GDP amid offsetting forces. Key positioning factors include the interplay of tariffs, fiscal imbalances, and sectoral trade flows. Sweeping tariff measures imposed in 2025 produced volatility and front-loading of imports, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down several global levies triggered subsequent adjustments, refunds, and shifts in sourcing. Exports have shown strength in capital goods, industrial supplies, and energy (aided by higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions), while imports remain elevated by AI-driven demand for semiconductors, computers, and telecommunications equipment. The persistent services surplus continues to offset much of the goods deficit. The federal budget deficit near 6% of GDP reinforces the “twin deficits” dynamic, sustaining capital inflows that support a larger trade gap. CBO projections anticipate the deficit as a share of GDP declining gradually through the decade as exports outpace imports, aided by dollar depreciation and slower import growth after tariff adjustments. Recent monthly narrowing (exports rising faster than imports in April) and mixed goods-balance readings underscore uncertainty around the full-year tally, with AI investment, energy markets, and the pace of post-ruling trade normalization as primary swing variables. Traders price the 800–1T band highest because these elements point to a deficit that narrows modestly from recent highs but does not collapse below 700B or surge past 1T under current trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
5,000億ドル未満
5%
5000億〜6000億
3%
6000億〜7000億
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
10%
8000億~9000億
38%
9,000億〜1兆
19%
1兆〜1.1兆
5%
1.1兆ドル以上
4%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
5,000億ドル未満
5%
5000億〜6000億
3%
6000億〜7000億
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
10%
8000億~9000億
38%
9,000億〜1兆
19%
1兆〜1.1兆
5%
1.1兆ドル以上
4%
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the 2026 US goods-and-services trade deficit centers on the 800–900 billion range (36.0%), followed by 900B–1T (18.5%), reflecting expectations that the annual gap will remain in the high-700B to low-trillion range.** Recent monthly data show the deficit fluctuating around 56B (April 2026 reading of 55.9B after revisions), with a trailing 12-month total near 718B through April. These figures sit below some prior-year peaks but align with forecasts that the gap will hold near 2–2.5% of GDP amid offsetting forces. Key positioning factors include the interplay of tariffs, fiscal imbalances, and sectoral trade flows. Sweeping tariff measures imposed in 2025 produced volatility and front-loading of imports, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down several global levies triggered subsequent adjustments, refunds, and shifts in sourcing. Exports have shown strength in capital goods, industrial supplies, and energy (aided by higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions), while imports remain elevated by AI-driven demand for semiconductors, computers, and telecommunications equipment. The persistent services surplus continues to offset much of the goods deficit. The federal budget deficit near 6% of GDP reinforces the “twin deficits” dynamic, sustaining capital inflows that support a larger trade gap. CBO projections anticipate the deficit as a share of GDP declining gradually through the decade as exports outpace imports, aided by dollar depreciation and slower import growth after tariff adjustments. Recent monthly narrowing (exports rising faster than imports in April) and mixed goods-balance readings underscore uncertainty around the full-year tally, with AI investment, energy markets, and the pace of post-ruling trade normalization as primary swing variables. Traders price the 800–1T band highest because these elements point to a deficit that narrows modestly from recent highs but does not collapse below 700B or surge past 1T under current trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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