Recent energy price rebounds amid renewed Middle East tensions, following June's sharp 0.4% MoM CPI drop, have lifted trader expectations for a modest July rebound, supporting the 64% implied probability on ≥0.1% MoM change. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains, reflecting persistent housing, wage, and tariff pass-through pressures that keep core services elevated even as gasoline volatility dominates the headline. Markets price in this path against a backdrop of sticky year-over-year readings near 3.5% and upcoming August 12 release, with 0.0% holding secondary support only if energy stabilizes faster than anticipated.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.1%以上 64%
0.0% 28%
-0.1% 4.1%
-0.2% <1%
$80,175 Vol.
$80,175 Vol.
≤-0.7%
<1%
-0.6%
<1%
-0.5%
<1%
-0.4%
<1%
-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
1%
-0.1%
4%
0.0%
28%
0.1%以上
64%
0.1%以上 64%
0.0% 28%
-0.1% 4.1%
-0.2% <1%
$80,175 Vol.
$80,175 Vol.
≤-0.7%
<1%
-0.6%
<1%
-0.5%
<1%
-0.4%
<1%
-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
1%
-0.1%
4%
0.0%
28%
0.1%以上
64%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price rebounds amid renewed Middle East tensions, following June's sharp 0.4% MoM CPI drop, have lifted trader expectations for a modest July rebound, supporting the 64% implied probability on ≥0.1% MoM change. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains, reflecting persistent housing, wage, and tariff pass-through pressures that keep core services elevated even as gasoline volatility dominates the headline. Markets price in this path against a backdrop of sticky year-over-year readings near 3.5% and upcoming August 12 release, with 0.0% holding secondary support only if energy stabilizes faster than anticipated.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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